A novel prognostic model for malignant mesothelioma incorporating quantitative FDG-PET imaging with clinical parameters.

PURPOSE Existing prognostic systems for malignant pleural mesothelioma do not incorporate imaging information. We aimed to identify the contribution of quantitative fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) analysis to other prognostic variables in this disease. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN Patients with malignant pleural mesothelioma underwent helical thoracoabdominal computed tomography and FDG-PET scans at baseline. Patients were treated as clinically indicated and followed for survival. FDG-PET variables derived included total glycolytic volume, a composite of tumor volume and glycolytic activity. RESULTS Ninety-three patients were accrued from 2003 to 2006. Of 89 eligible assessable patients, 28 had undergone pleurodesis before enrolment. Seventeen patients remained alive at analysis; median survival is 15.4 months. On univariate analysis, significant prognostic factors were: total glycolytic volume on FDG-PET (P = 0.003), sarcomatoid histology (P < 0.0005), weight loss (P = 0.031), computed tomography stage (P = 0.015), and European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer good prognostic score (P = 0.049). In patients with epithelioid or biphasic histology, baseline total glycolytic volume remained predictive of survival in patients with (P = 0.01) or without (P = 0.018) previous pleurodesis. In multivariate analysis, no variable other than histology contributed to the model in patients with sarcomatoid histology; total glycolytic volume and weight loss contributed to the models in patients with nonsarcomatoid histology. computed tomography-assessed tumor-node-metastasis stage did not contribute to the model. A nomogram, which incorporates quantitative PET parameters and pleurodesis into prognostic information, is presented. CONCLUSIONS Sarcomatoid histology remains the strongest prognostic factor. In patients with non sarcomatoid disease, volumetric FDG-PET parameters are more predictive of survival than tumor-node-metastasis staging, suggesting that tumor volume and glycolytic activity may be more important determinants of prognosis in malignant pleural mesothelioma than anatomic extent of disease.